DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
India-Pakistan: Comparative Capabilitiesew Military Confrontation
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence1
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
India-Paki&tan: Comparative Capabilitiesew Military Confrontation
Summary
Once again war between India and Pakistaneal possibility. The friction now centers on East Pakistan rather than Kashmir, tho primary issue being the moreillion Pakistani refugees that have fled to India.
India emerged from5 warsmallerlosses of military equipment and personnel than Pakistan. Exact loss figures have never been Both countries probnbly losthird of their tanks, but India appears to have suffered0 percent loss ofaboutercent for Pakistan--and lessercent of its armed forces personnel, whereas Pakistanercent.
India used only small token forcei in the air campaign, apparentlyonger wtr in which its numerical superioritya. of Pakistan, on the other hand, struck quickly at Indian Air Force Installations in an attempt to deny the Indians the freedom of action their superiority should have given them. On the ground, Pakistansome initially successful operations, but the Indians appear to have made moro effective use of tank units.
Note: Thie memorandum was prepared by tho OffioeStrategic Reeearoh and coordinated within CIA.
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Since5 war both India and Pakistan have been replacing their materiel losses, strengthening their forces, and improving the effectiveness ofmilitary organizations. Pakistan has expanded its army byotal. It has addedanks andrtillery andguns, most of which came from China, andoviet artUlary pieces to its army inventory. In addition, Pakistan has acquired atircraft, about half of which were Communist Chinesend halfor French fighter aircraft.
Similarly, India has increased its ground army by atnd possibly as many, and currently has closeillion men under arms. Atanks have been added to Indian armored units, and India's air defense network has been strengthened by the acquisition of Sovieturface-to-air missilei The Indian Air Force has obtained moreoviet fighters and fighter-bombers andndian-built fighter aircraft. The Indian Navy has been expanded with new submarines, missile patrol boats, landing craft, and other shipv.
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Today, Pakistan's air force is completely equipped with jet aircraft. Because of its small size, however, it has only limited capabilities to defend against Indian air attacks and would not be able to carry out sustained operations becauseimited supply of spare parts, fuel, and ammunition,hortage of pilots and technicians.
be able toemporary advantage over Indian forces in some areas. It could notong war, however, and the Indian Army probably would be able ultimately to drive the Pakistanis back from the border. There are0 Pakistani troops in East Pakistan and most of the moren west Pakistan are deployed near the Kashmir border. India's groundfour times as largeroops near the border with East Pakistan,pposite West Pakistan, andlong the China border.
In the east, India would have significantover the Pakistanis. India's air power in this area is superior, and terrain and logisticwould facilitate an Indian thrust to seize part or even all of East Pakistan.
Both the Pakistani and the Indian navies arein size and capability, and neither is likely toajor factoronflict. Over the past six years, however, both countries have been expanding theirPakistanis with three submarines from France and the Indians withhips of various types from the USSR and at least six frigates which they are building with British assistance.
The USSR has supplied large quantitieside variety of equipment for India's air force, army, and navy while Communist China has been the principal source of supply for Pakistan. The present military balance still strongly favors India overparticularlyrolongedthe USSR and China do not become militarily involved.
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Contents
Page
Backgroundi 5
Force Development5
The Air
The
The
Sources of Military Assistance
Chinese Aid to
Pakistan's Other Suppliers
India's Sources of
Possible Scenariosonfrontation
In the
In the
Maps
India and Pakistani
Deployment of Air
Deployment of Ground Forces
Deployment of Naval Forces
Possible Areas of Conflictew Indo-
Paklstani
Table
India and Pakistani Military Personnel and
Equipment As of
Background: 5 War
India emerged from5 war with smallerlosses of military equipment and personnel than Pakistan. Exact loss figures have never been documented. India admitsfanks,fircraft, andfersonnel. Actual losses may well have been double these. The Pakistanis, on the other hand, are estimated to havefanks,fircraft,fersonnel.
While India clearly had the advantage of numerically superior forcesheir performance on theat least in the early stages of the fighting, left much to be desired.' The air war strategy wasbased on the assumption that because of thein number of aircraft, time was on India's side. Indian attacks were aimed at airfields, radarand troops and vehicles in the field, but were launched with only small token forces. Moreover, in the early stages of the fighting the Indian Government was reluctant to employ its air force beyond thebattlefield.
Pakistan's air war strategy, on the other hand, was an all-out effort to inflict maximum damage on Indianaircraft on the ground, and radar installations in order to deny the Indian Air Force the freedom of action its numerical superiority should have ensured.esult of Pakistan's more aggressive action, the Pakistanis destroyedondiansix Canberra light bombers, and eight Hawker Hunter fighter-bombers--on the ground. The Canberras and Hawker Hunters were at bases near India's eastern border where they were easy prey for the squadronased in East Pakistan. The Indian Government, concentrating on confining the war to the western border, had deliberately restricted the movement of these aircraft.
India's strategy of gradual involvement probably would have been successful if the war had lasted longer because tho Pakistani Air Force was suffering severeof fuel, ammunition, and spare parts by the time of the cease-fire.
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On the ground, after India countered Pakistanito infiltrate "freedom fighters" across the Kashmir cease-fire line, the Pakistanisrive in southern Kashmir toward the main Indian supply line. The Indians replied three days laterhree-pronged attack across the West Pakistanone thrust aimed at Sialkot, and the second and third at Lahore, Pakistan's largest city. Thiswas indecisive and the fighting evolvedar of attrition. India did not take Lahore, although it claimed that it could have done so.
During the fighting, armor played an important role on both sides. Pakistan made effective use of the tank-infantry team, but did not employ its tanks to maximum effectiveness. Many of them became bogged down in marshy areas. In addition, Pakistan lost many tanks to Indian antitank weapons becauseack ofand reconnaissance, as well as inadequate logistic support.
The Indian Army more than held its own against the Pakistanis. Despite the fact that they were no match for the US-supplied Pattons in the Pakistani inventory, Indian tanks did achieve considerable success. India, however, did not have good air-to-ground cooperation, and there were shortcomings in Indian intelligence.
The fighting ended in late5 when the United Nations waa able tooase-fire. Ineeting between Pakistani President Ayub and Indian Prime Minister Shastri was held at Tashkent in the Soviet Union. The resultant Tashkent Declarationeneral plan for military withdrawal and resultedessening of tensions between the two countries. Withdrawal of theorces was accomplished in February and early6 and culminated in the return of all forces to locations within their respective international boundaries, and to appropriate sides of the9 Kashmir cease-fire line.
Force Development5
5 both countries have sought to replace materiel losses and improve the effectiveness of their forces.
In the six years since the war, Pakistan has added
The Pakistani Air Force has added atombat aircraft to its inventory--including,rench Miragehinese,hinese-suppliedet bombers.
Not much has been done to improve Pakistan'snaval capability. Inventory additions include three French Daphne class submarines and six Italian midget submarines, but naval personnel strength has increanod by.
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India has also increased its armed forces. 5 the army's personnel btrength has increased by atnd possibly as many. These personnel were assigned to five new infantry divisions and to four existing divisions to bring them up to full authorized strength. Additions to the army inventory include atanks of
The Indian Air Force has been increased by0 personnel over the last six years. Important additions to the jet fighter inventory includeU-7a,ndian-built, andndian-built Gnats. f these aircraft, however, were replacements for older aircraft.
The navy also has received considerable attention.0 personnel have been addedn addition, India has acquiredlass submarines, five Petya class escorts, eight Osa class missile patrol boats, an Ugra class submarine tender, two Polnocny clas3 medium landingubmarine rescue ship, and five small motor gunboats, all from the Soviet Union.
The armed forces of both countries now ai- stronger and better equipped than they wereut in terms of equipment and personnel strength, the military balance still favors India, particularlyrolonged war. (See the table on
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India and Pakistan: Military Personnel and Equipment As of
Force Personnel
Jet fighters Mirage IIIE6 Gnat
Hawker Hunter Miscellaneous
5
24
3
ight bombers Canberra light7 light bombers Helicopters Transports
54
5 8
Equipment Medium tanks Light tanks Artillery, including self-propelled guns Armored personnel carriers
Navy
Personnel
4
Cruisers
Aircraft carriers Destroyers and destroyer escorts Submarines Midget submarines Missile patrol boats Subchasers, patrol escorts, and other naval ships
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Pakistan
The Pakistani Air Force is an all jet force which has only limited capabilities in defending West Pakistan's main population, industrial, and military centers from an Indian air attack. The air force would not be able to carry out sustained operations lasting longer than three or four months because of Pakistan's dependence onforeign supplythe US, and Communistshortage of pilots andeneral lack of spare parts, and the limitation of holding onlyay supply of fuel and ammunition.
Air defense missions are performed by five fighter-interceptor squadrons equipned with Chinese-built,s, and French-built Mirage IIIEs. The one squadrons haspevational aircraft left of theriginally supplied. The interceptor squadrons are based at Sarghoda, West Pakistan. (See map, facing).
Missions in support of the army are performed by eight fighter-bomber squadrons equipped with US and, French Mirage Ills, and some. Seven of these squadrons are stationed at bases in West Pakistan, while one overatrength squadron equippeds stationed at Dacca in East Pakistan.
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Bombing missions are tha responsibility of7 squadron and one understrengthquadron, both based at Masroor, West Pakistan.
The alert and the dispersal of aircraft are inirect response to Indian activitiesen near the India-West Pakistan border and five near the India-East Pakistan border. Pakistan reportedly believes thatf these Indian airfields have been reactivated recently, and there is some evidence to support this belief.
India
onflict of short duration or against only Pakistan, the Indian Air Force would be capable of countering most air attacks into Indian territory,aerial reconnaissance, and conducting ground support, bombing, and transport operations. In ao* lonq duration, orarger scale war against both Pakistan and China, however, the Indians would probably encounter support problems because they too are largely dependent on foreign suppliers for spare parts and lack reserves of pilots and technicians.
The Indian Air Force has nearlyperational squadrons, and consists ofombat andaircraft, compared with Theincludes aboutifferent types of aircraft acquired from the USSR, tho UK, France, the US, and other Western suppliers, as well as those produced in India under license.
Bombing missions are the responsibility of three light bomber squadrons equipped with British-builtaging but still effective light bomber.
1 In both oaaeat the total inventoriee include trainer and utility airaraft ae veil ae aircraft not operationally
aeeigned.
India recently purchasedf thesefrom New Zealand and twelve from thereplace some of the Canberras that were barely operable, and to bring the three squadrons up to an authorized strength ofircraft per squadron. (See map on pageor deployment of Indian air forces.)
Air defense missions are assigned toighter-interceptor squadrons, of which eight are equipped withnd eight with subsonic British Gnat day fighters. Both the Gnat and there produced in India under license.
Missions in support of the army are assigned toighter-bomber squadrons. These squadrons are equipped with British Hawker Hunter, French Mystere, Sovietr Indianircraft. The Hawker Hunters and the Mysteres now in the inventory will be phased out when sufficient quantities ofubsonic twin-engine jet fighter being produced in India, become available.
Pakistan
The Pakistani Army could successfully resist an Indian invasion in the westhort time, and might even be able toemporary advantage over Indian forces there. In the east, the army would have much greater difficulty in containing the Indiana, but it has some chance of delaying an Indian advance long enough toolitical settlement. In addition, the Pakistani Army is capable of maintaining internal security in the west, but probably cannot maintain full control in the east. Principal weaknesses of the army include its almost complete dependence on foreign sources forack of an organiied reserve, inadequate training facilities, and insufficient combined arms training and maneuvers.
Thea total personnel strength of aboutorganized into fournfantry and twoeven independent brigades, and two independent armored reconnaissance regiments. 0 troops are now estimated to be stationed in East Pakistan and they are organizedorps headquarters and three infantry divisions. The remainder of Pakistan'stwo new divisions which may not yet be combatin West Pakistan. At least eight divisions are near the Kashmir border, an armored divi sion and an infantry division are located farther south, while two other infantry divisions are reported to be deployed opposite Afghanistan, (see map, facing.) In the event of war, these two divisions would almost certainly move to the front, and parts of one division may already have done so.
The equipment in the Pakistani inventory ia of diverse origin. It includes obsolete4
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as well as73 tanks, and also tanks supplied by both Communist China and the USSR. The condition and operational status of Pakistani armor are unknown.
Sincearch, when West Pakistan began moving against East Pakistanihe two new Pakistani divisions have been organized and are being equipped with equipment provided by Communist China. At least one of these divisions was being established through fresh recruiting efforts. It is not known if training of these two divisions has been completed.
India
The Indian Army is capable of maintaining internal security and could successfully defend against aattack. If India launched an attack against West Pakistan, itsheer weight ofcould keep the Pakistani Army on the defensive and, given time, couldakistani retreat from the borders.
The armyotal personnel strength ofillion, and is organized into four geographicalCentral, Eastern, andwhich have both tactical and administrative authority. The units which hava beenall of which are near the northern five corps headquarters,ivisions (one armored,nfantry, and2 independent brigades, andattalion-size combat units. ndian troops are assigned to the West Pakistan border area,o the East Pakistan border area, andlong the China border. roops are deployedin India and would be available forthe forces that might be initially engaged. (See map on pageor deployment of Indian ground forces.)
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Indian ground force equipment includes British Centurions,45 tanks, and the Vijayanta tank built in India under license from Great Britain. ndia's greatest relative gain on Pakistan has been in the quality of its armored force. 5 it had no tanks able to match the Pattons in the Pakistani forces.
The Indian Army currently isow level alert. Compassionate leaves are still being granted, andnow on leave are not being recalled.
Tho Navies
Pakistan
The Pakistani Navy is small, and, although it would be no match against the Indian Navy, it can conduct limited escort, patrol, and coastal minesweeping The ships of Pakistan's navy rarely operate outside the immediate coastal waters of West Pakistan, although at least one of its destroyers recently has been observed at Chittagong in East Pakistan.
Most of the ships in the inventory are old and were supplied by Great Britainrant basis. Pakistan, however, has been attempting to modernize its fleet, and recently has acquired three Daphne class submarines from France. The last of the three Daphnes was scheduled to arrive in Karachi, Pakistan's principal naval facility, in June. With the exception of two destroyers, all of the major combatants are operational. (See map, facing.)
India
While the Indian Navy is well equipped to carry out its assigned tasks of escort, coastal patrol,warfare, minesweeping, and amphibious operations, it could not defendile-long coastline from minor Pakistani naval attacks or prevent harassment of its sea lines of communication in the event of The ships of the Indian Navy operate along India's coasts in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal and do not leave this area except on occasional training and goodwill cruises.
Like the Pakistani Navy, most of the equipment in the Indian Navy is old and mostly of British origin. India also is trying to build up and modernize its
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fleet, however. It has acquiredhips from the Soviot Union over the past six yeara--includinglasshas four more of theseon order. India also is building at least six Lcander class frigates, with British assistance, as well as inshore minesweepers and coastal patrol boats. New Delhi presently is exploring with France, West Germany, and Italy the possibilities of building in India one of their submarine designs. (See map on pageor deployment of India's naval forces.)
India is having problems keepirg its majorships operational. Two of its destroyerone of its cruisers, and one oflass submarines currently are undergoing major repairs
Despite its shortcomings, the Indian Navy can blockade East Pakistani ports.
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Sources of Military Assistance
Since5 Communist China has become Pakistan's most important foreign source of military aid and the Soviet Union has become India's primary source for modern weapon systems. Both suppliers have substantial orders from their clients for additional military equipment which is to be delivered over the next several years. arge degree, the outcomeonflict which might occur in the next couple of month would depend on what support the two adversaries could muster in the form of direct foreign military aid or military action. While both sides could absorb large quantities of tanks and other ground force equipment, they probably could not make use of larger quantities of aircraft because both Pakistan and India haveimited number of trained pilots and technical per-esnnel.
Chinese Aid to Pakistan
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Pakistan. This would be Peking's only means of rapid access to East Pakistan without confronting India.
During5 war Peking was able to aid Pakistan simply by placing Chinese troops on alert along the Indian border and by conducting small unit maneuvers. Similar actions could be taken by Peking to support Pakistan if the Indo-rakistani dispute once again results in hostilities.
These Chinese forces can defend the Sino-Indian
border area, but their capability for sustainedwould be limited without additional forces. The Chinese could make diversionary and harassing moves along the border, however, effectively freezing many of the ndian troops along the Chinese border. Direct Chinese military intervention is unlikely. The Chinese have purposelyow posture on the India-Pakistan issue and, in fact, clandestine sources report that Pakistani diplomatic personnel in Peking believe that the Chinese would not go beyond supplying military equipment to Pakistan in the event hostilities occur.
Reserve forces for the Himalayan border regionof ativision each in the Sinkiang and Lan-chou MRs and two armies in the Ch'eng-tu MR. Forces from these regions were deployed temporarily to the border during the Sino-Indian conflictnd could be recalled again.
The Chinese have no tactical aircraft stationed along the South Asian border. owever, measures hava boon taken to provide for rapidof aircraft to tho region. Two airfields have
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been constructedhird improved in Tibet. ew ether airfields outside Tibet could support limited tactical aircraft operations along the Himalayan
PaklsTrs Other Suppliers
Other Pakistani suppliers includehas supplied high-performance fighter aircraft,andUS, West Germany,and Iran.
Pakistan presentlyariety of militaryon order from several of its non-Communist arms suppliers, but few of these orders are likely to be filled any time soon. At least four Alouette helicopters-of an order ofbeen delivered bv France since Pakistan also has orderedet fighters, but delivery of the firsts not scheduled until sometime
For the past few years, Czechoslovakia has been delivering military vehicles, support equipment, and spare parts to the Pakistani Army, as well as machinery and raw materials to the ordnance factoriesash basis.
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Pakistan also has establishedfriendly relations with several Arab states and with Iran. The Pakistaniscannot expect to receive much in the way of material assistance from any of their Arab friends. The Arabs may be willing to furnish moral support and, in the case of Libya and Saudi Arabia, some money, but not much beyond this.
In addition, Gromyko gave an assurance in the UN of support for India, including useoviet veto in the Security Council, if some aspect of the crisis is Dhar gave no indication, however, that the Soviets guaranteed supportituation in which it was not clear who initiated hostilities. Gromykoalso suggested that an Indian delegation go to Moscowilitary shopping list and promised speedy negotiations and delivery in return.
If Moscowater date should decide to delay military equipment and spare parts deliveries to India in order to bringease-fire, the impact on Indian military operations would be minimal for the first month or so. During this time, New Delhi could rely on its own production and stockpiles for nany spare parts. India has the facilities to overhaul most types of ground equipment and aircraft.
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Possible Scenariosonfrontation
In the East
If hostilities should occur, the contest in the air in East Pakistan is likely to be short lived. TheAir Force has only one overstrength squadronat Dacca. Against this the Indian Air Force could employ four fighter squadrons and threend India would undoubtedly move to destroy thesquadron as quickly as possible. From then on the Indian Air Force would be free to roam at will on bombing missions and to support Indian forces on the ground. The primary concern of the Indian Air Force wouldbe the Indian-Chinese border.
Pakistan, realizing that it is badly outnumbered in the air, might attempt raids on Indian airfields, near the India-East Pakistan border (see map,n hopes of duplicating5 successes when it caught both Canberras and Hawker Hunters on the ground.
On the ground, India couldhrust to seize the northwest corner of East Pakistan bounded on the east by the Jamuna River and on the south by the Ganges. Pakistanhis area, but they are spread thinly. India probably would need toorce ofivisionroops. Terrain in this area of East Pakistan is favorableuick strike, while the Jamuna River would hinder quickand resupply of Pakistani forces. New Delhi might find an operation to seize this corner of East Pakistan attractive because it would provide land for the refugees, and it would solve India's militaryof the narrow Siliguri Gap, which, if seized by Pakistan, would prevent India from being able to supply its troops in the northeast.
A thrust into the area south of the Ganges to seize Jessore and Khulna also might be considered by the Indian military, but probably would not be undertaken as a
separate operation. The many rivers and streamsthis area of East Pakistan make it unfavorable for extensive ground action. If India decided to undertake operations in this section of Eastaratroop brigade stationed near Calcutta would probably be assigned this mission. Pakistan has onlyessore to counter any Indian thrust in this area.
Alternatively, India might attempt an all-outto capture all of East Pakistan. If successful, this move, some Indians believe, would have at least twoboth political. It would solve the refugee problem and wouldeasonably favorableclimate in Bangla Desh.
To carry out such an offensive, India would probably employ nearly all ofroops surrounding East Pakistan and attack from the three sides. One prong of the attack would come from about midway along the West Bengal-East Pakistan border and would be aimed at the northwest corner of East Pakistan. Another thrust probably would move toward Jessore in the south. These forces would probably move to the east to link up in Dacca with another prong coming from Argatala in the east. ourth thrust would come from Shillong in the north. ampaign would probablyard-fought encounter, but India would have the advantage in that its resupply problems would be Icbs difficult, and it could count on additional support from the guerrilla forces that India has been training. If Chinese forces were to intervene on the side of Pakistan, however, India's chances for success in such an offensive might be significantly reduced.
Pakistani forces probably wouldargely defensive action in the east. They would probably delay back to the Jamuna River, where they would establish their defense positions. According to one clandestine report, Pakistan might also try to seize the narrow Siliguri Gap.
India might wish to use its "augmented" Eastern naval fleethow of force in the Bay of Bengal off
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the coast of East Pakistan, to harass Pakistani shipping going into East Pakistan, or tolockade of East Pakistan. Inasmuch as Pakistan has limitedin East Pakistan for its major combatants and no ships to replenish its major combatants at sea, the Pakistani Government is unlikely to move any of its ships into the Bay of Bengalounter to Indian moves.
In the West
The bulk of the action in the event of hostilities is likely to occur in the west, and there is little reason to believe that the tactics and objectives will be very different from what they were
In the air, the Pakistani Air Force probably would try to dpstroy as many Indian aircraft on the ground as possible. Initially Pakistan would direct its air attacks against the five IndianAdampur, Halwara, Jaisalmer, andas primary targets. At the same time Pakistan might also send its bombers against New Delhi.
India is likely to reply with air attacks on Peshawar, Chak Lala, Sarghoda, and Shorkot Road, with its major effort as5 directed at Sarghoda. India's strategic bombers are likely to be sent against Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Xarachi.
On the ground, either side could initiate hostilities in the west. Either mightreemptive attack against the other since minorby both as essentiallyget out of hand. Pakistan might launch an attack to relieve pressure on East Pakistan, or toart of Indian-held Kashmir.if fearful of Chinese intervention--might attack in the west in hopes of shortening the war.
Most ofroops in the west probably would be committed to action from Lahore north into Pakistan does have one armored division, however, that is presently unopposed on the Indian side of the if this situation should prevail at the onset of hostilities, this division could be used to attack Indian
troopa in Kashmir from the flank. It could also be usedore dramatic atcack on New Delhi.
India for its part is likely toounterattack at Lahore with the avowed purpose of cutting Westin two. India currently hasroops in the Kashmir-Punjab area that could be used for this purpose.
Ground action farther south along the India-West Pakistan border is likely to be limited to occasional probes.
Only minor naval action would be likely in the west. The navies of both sides probably would do little mora than normal wartime patrolling off their respective coastlines. Pakistan might, however, find it tempting to respond to an Indian blockade of Bast Pakistanaid on one of India's west coast ports such as Bombay. Pakistan might also use its three Daphne class submarines to attack Indian shipping in the Arabian Sea.
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